Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 2.362647 2.505007 2.660539 2.844941 3.060212 3.307071 3.617057
2025-09-07 2.223631 2.403757 2.609759 2.867657 3.189618 3.590406 4.150030
2025-09-14 2.065960 2.255823 2.478272 2.765244 3.137754 3.625735 4.358057
2025-09-21 1.987305 2.190933 2.435186 2.759923 3.198979 3.807330 4.801992
2025-09-28 1.901332 2.109478 2.363094 2.707294 3.186258 3.878089 5.089410
2025-10-05 1.876353 2.100191 2.379003 2.768800 3.335038 4.208169 5.927761
2025-10-12 1.864929 2.106025 2.413171 2.856217 3.530962 4.654578 7.245850
2025-10-19 1.817877 2.062971 2.379152 2.843451 3.570634 4.841527 8.122880
2025-10-26 1.782035 2.032330 2.359374 2.848599 3.638023 5.094305 9.431256
2025-11-02 1.728873 1.976415 2.301872 2.793179 3.597934 5.125003 10.067314
2025-11-09 1.690571 1.938622 2.267394 2.769689 3.609112 5.265290 11.352855
2025-11-16 1.657113 1.905922 2.238283 2.752049 3.627975 5.427285 13.117870
2025-11-23 1.624679 1.874812 2.211869 2.739847 3.661009 5.647320 16.204667
2025-11-30 1.604669 1.859502 2.206733 2.760056 3.755449 6.052891 24.655895
2025-12-07 1.552083 1.797952 2.132664 2.665288 3.621003 5.814032 22.802424
2025-12-14 1.528590 1.775663 2.114514 2.659998 3.659663 6.069429 35.719364
2025-12-21 1.494009 1.737061 2.071204 2.611158 3.607669 6.050873 44.023143
2025-12-28 1.490877 1.741785 2.091219 2.667639 3.773668 6.767727 NaN
2026-01-04 1.493781 1.754856 2.123943 2.747826 4.003823 7.901884 NaN
2026-01-11 1.472921 1.733658 2.104195 2.735950 4.030245 8.272645 NaN
2026-01-18 1.457208 1.719300 2.094229 2.740557 4.095231 8.884994 NaN
2026-01-25 1.428707 1.685985 2.054216 2.689540 4.023535 8.769470 NaN
2026-02-01 1.408448 1.664056 2.031094 2.667857 4.020461 9.034210 NaN